| Abstract [eng] |
The main purpose of this master's thesis is to determine Lithuanian enterprises' probability of bankruptcy based on their financial indicators. Also, to perform detailed analysis and present conclusions on what factors can influence their liquidation nowadays. The work consists of three main parts: the analysis of the literature; the research and its results; the conclusion and recommendations. Literature analysis critically reviews the development of bankruptcy: its theory, its influencing factors, and the bankruptcy prediction models. Firstly, it reviews the meaning of bankruptcy and the importance of it. Then, it discusses the advantages and disadvantages of bankruptcy itself. After, the author critically analyses the theories of bankruptcy and the property division problem. Afterwards, the literature analysis includes a review of the factors affecting/influencing bankruptcy. Lastly, it reviews the bankruptcy prediction models and provides an overview of the section. After the literature analysis, the author carried out a study about the probability of bankruptcy of Lithuanian enterprises and the factors affecting it. To conduct the study, the author has chosen to test the bankruptcy prediction models with already bankrupt organisations and to determine which models are valid and which are not. The author has tested 20 already bankrupted enterprises and determined that Grigaravičius and Altman's third Z models were the most accurate to predict bankruptcy. Therefore, the author has used these to test the probability of bankruptcy of Lithuanian enterprises from the Nasdaq Vilnius OMX publicly traded companies list. The performed research revealed that the „Klaipėdos Nafta“ could be going bankrupt soon due to poor financial indicators and the lack of ability to quickly convert assets into cash to finance the liabilities. However, after the individual analysis, it was clear that the depreciation of the assets, negative EBIT and poor profitability ratios have significantly influenced bankruptcy prediction. Thus, „Klaipėdos Nafta“ is not at risk of bankruptcy only due to the negative profitability indicators, and it is important to review every bankruptcy prediction individually. Not only through the financial indicators, but also through the external and internal factors which the author has discussed and which can influence the organisation. The conclusions and recommendations summarise the main concepts of literature analysis as well as the results of the performed research. The author argued that inflation, rising energy prices, and the war in Ukraine, which significantly impacts energy prices and the global supply chain, could influence bankruptcy these days the most. Also, the highest influence on the firm's liquidity could have sales, debt and assets ratios. All of these should be the key financial indicators on which “improvements” the organisations should work on. |
