| Abstract [eng] |
The dynamics of the Baltic Sea region climate humidity in the year 1950-2004 M. Pankauskas The goal of the work. On the basis of the different rates of precipitation amount, evaluate the humidity fluctuations of the BSR. Analyze the peculiarities of nebulosity repartition. The methods of the work. The BSR humidity was evaluated on the basis of annual precipitation amount fluctuations and using Bowen’s method (that allowed evaluate the region aridity more objectively). The consistent of convectional precipitation repartition, annual precipitation amount dimensional correlation and regional nebulosity territorial peculiarities were evaluated. The prognosis of regional precipitation amount is given in this work and it is compared with the tendencies of current fluctuations. The analysis of above mentioned rates was accomplished on the basis of the geographical grid data. The main results of the work. The average amount of precipitation in BSR is 679 mm. Most of the precipitation gets the south – southeast (11-13 sec.), northeast and west sectors (3, 7 sec.). In these segments the largest fluctuations of annual participation amount were noticed (where the fluctuations amplitude reached the annual rates). The general average precipitation amount in BSR decreased 8% during the period that was researched. In different BSR sectors the trends of annual precipitation amount were negative. According to the precipitation fluctuation trend, the region can be divided into three sectors: 1. BSR west and marine sectors; 2. East – marine and continental sectors; 3. North and south sectors. In the first sector the amount of precipitation declined by 2%, in the second – by 6 %, in the third – by 20 %. During the warm and cold periods the amount of precipitation in BSR decreased by 10%. The trend of BSR warm and cold periods is neutral, that means that during the all period, which was researched (cold and warm), the conditions of humidity were stable. After calculating the territorial correlation of annual precipitation amount, the tight precipitation amount repartition territorial connection was found (that was equal to 0,7). Statistically significant meanings are between the southwest and north and middle Baltic Sea. That means that the southwest carry is dominating. In the region during the summer time (06, 07, 08) averagely 48 % of precipitation is convectional. During the period, which was researched, the part of convectional precipitation in increased general precipitation amount. The average nebulosity in the region is 50 %, and the minimal seasonal was in spring time – 46 %. The nebulosity is less in the north BSR. The maximal nebulosity was in south sectors. The increase of nebulosity is going from north to south. In the larger part of Baltic region Bo rates are between 0,4-0,8 and are typical for medium latitudes. In all region sectors maximal Bo rates are in the June, and minimal – in August. According to Bo trends, the droughtiest BSR sectors are south and north Baltic Sea sectors. The modulation of seasonal precipitation amount fluctuation indicated that the precipitation amount during the XXI century should be higher in winter, autumn and spring seasons. The largest precipitation shift should be noticed in winter. The largest negative precipitation amount shifts are in summer. |
