| Abstract [eng] |
The main purpose of this master thesis is to identify which factors are most influential for house prices' fluctuations in Lithuania, Vilnius, Kaunas, and Klaipėda. This work consists of three main parts: the analysis of scientific literature, the research and its results, conclusion and recommendations. The literature analysis provides an overview of the main features of the residential housing market and analyses the most important microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting house prices: GDP, interest rate, unemployment, inflation, income, construction costs, and permits. The less researched indicators such as consumer confidence and expectations are additionally assessed. After the literature analysis the author has carried out the study on the factors of the house prices fluctuations in Lithuania, Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipėda. The constructed research model includes graphical, correlation, regression analysis, vector autoregression, Granger causality tests and impulse response analysis. The results of the research were statistically processed with the RStudio programme batch. The study reveals that the factors influencing house prices in Lithuania and the it’s 3 major cities are very similar. Unemployment and inflation were found to be the most influential factors, while GDP and building permits have the least impact on house prices. Construction costs and wages have a greater impact in the larger cities, in contrast to Klaipėda. The conclusions and recommendations summarize the main aspects of literature analysis, research methodology and the results of the research carried out. This study can help provide a better understanding of the factors that influence changes in house prices in Lithuania and its regions. |
