| Abstract [eng] |
Sabė, L. (2024). Tenant risk assessment from the perspective of commercial real estate companies. Master’s Thesis in Economics. Thesis Supervisor Assoc. Dr. Lina Garšvienė. Vilnius University, Šiauliai academy, 72 pages (96 pages). This master’s thesis explores the factors influencing tenant risk from the perspective of commercial real estate. The objective is to determine whether publicly available information about tenants can be used to assess their level of risk, considering the characteristics of business entities. The first part of the thesis aims to reveal the diversity of the need for customer risk assessment in business enterprises. After analysing scientific literature, criteria used in the reports of the credit rating agency “Creditreform”, and reviews from the Audit, Accounting, Property Valuation, and Insolvency Administration Service under the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Lithuania, financial and non-financial factors influencing tenant risk are identified. The second part introduces the methodology for assessing tenant risk from the perspective of commercial real estate. The theoretical model for evaluating factors influencing tenant risk is discussed, and the steps of forming the empirical model are detailed, including data compilation, justification of the research sample and period, identification of research factors, formulation of research hypotheses, and model creation. The limitations of the research are also specified. In the third part, the thesis analyses the risk of tenants’ commercial real estate, focusing on JSC “Masada”. Six models and twenty-two modifications are developed to evaluate the factors influencing tenant risk using a ranking logistic regression method. Th study determines the impact of these factors on tenant risk during research period. The results confirm that certain factors, such as tenants’ debts to Sodra, lack of transportation, decreasing turnover, low statutory capital, the number of employees from 0 to 19, the company’s existence exceeding 10 years, and engagement in accommodation and catering services, statistically and negatively affect the risk of tenants of JSC “Masada”. However, while the comprehensive model accurately predicts low-risk tenants, the correct prediction for medium and high-risk tenants is low, reaching only 28,52 % and 17 %, respectively. |
