| Abstract [eng] |
In first part the concept of Covid-19 and restriction stringency is revealed, along with the economic impact on countries. Factors influencing inflation and their theoretical aspects are determined, and the results of studies analysing the impact of Covid-19 restriction stringency on inflation are summarized. Covid-19 is the latest pandemic in the health sector, causing a global economic, political, and social crisis. The stringency of Covid-19 restrictions is a metric for assessing the pandemic. It is calculated using the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker, which evaluates the stringency of pandemic restrictions in certain countries at specific times. Covid-19 has affected the global economy, highlighting vulnerabilities in supply chains and the healthcare sector. After conducting empirical research analysis, it is noted that there is a relatively small number of studies examining the impact of Covid-19 restriction stringency on inflation. Most researchers, studying economic factors affecting inflation, do not include the stringency of Covid-19 restrictions as a separate variable. Studies analysing the impact of Covid-19 restriction stringency on inflation claim that it negatively affects inflation, while other authors find an insignificant impact. In the second part of the thesis, a methodology for assessing the impact of Covid-19 restriction stringency on inflation is developed. The basis for factors and indicators reflecting them is provided, and hypotheses is formulated based on previous research. The stages of the study are discussed, the specifics of dynamic analysis are detailed, a methodology and an empirical evaluation model are developed, and the limitations of the study and the reliability of the results are disclosed. The study evaluates the period from 2019 to 2022 in 27 EU countries. The object under study is inflation, the independent factor is Covid-19 restriction stringency, and control factors include money supply, exchange rates, interest rates, loan volumes, industrial activity and GDP. Problems in time series studies, such as correlation, autocorrelation, and co-integration are identified and eliminated. Based on previous research, a hypothesis is raised stating that the stringency of Covid-19 restrictions reduces inflation. Due to data shortages, 5 countries are excluded from the sample. The study does not evaluate whether the impact of Covid-19 restriction stringency on inflation manifests through channels for individual factors. In the third part of the thesis, inflation trends from 2017 to 2021 are assessed in the context of Covid-19, and the dynamics of Covid-19 restriction stringency in the EU from 2020 to 2022 are analysed. The assessment begins by determining the interactions and strengths of interactions between Covid-19 restriction stringency and other factors, followed by the construction of models. The primary OLS model includes the immediate impact of variables, while the remaining models reveal the impact of variables with lag of one, two, and three periods. Covid-19 restriction stringency negatively correlated with loans, GDP, real effective exchange rates, and industrial activity. No strong correlation was found in any combination of variables, indicating that weak and moderate correlation reveals interdependence of economic indicators, which also exists in stable market conditions. The impact of Covid-19 restriction stringency on inflation in the EU is ambiguity. The inclusion of delays revealed the manifestation of the impact of Covid-19 restriction stringency on inflation after 1, 2, or 3 months from the implementation of restrictions. The impact on inflation became apparent after one month, while in Germany and Spain, the impact of stricter restrictions became evident only after 2 and 3 months from the implementation of pandemic control policies. The stringency of Covid-19 restrictions was not a significant factor in the decline of price levels in EU during 2019 – 2022. |
