| Abstract [eng] |
SUMMARY VILNIUS UNIVERSITY BUSINESS SCHOOL SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS FINANCE AND INVESTMENTS STUDY PROGRAM ROLANDAS MOCIŠKIS ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS ON THE GERMAN STOCK MARKET FROM A SECTORAL PERSPECTIVE Supervisor - Assoc. Dr. Greta Keliuotytė-Staniulėnienė Thesis prepared – 2024, Vilnius Thesis volume - 69 pg. Number of tables - 15. Number of figures– 7. The number of references – 50. This thesis is intended to assess the influence of various macroeconomic factors on the stock markets and stock returns. For this research, it was chosen to analyze the impact of German macroeconomic indicators on a different German stock market sectoral indices. The purpose and tasks of this paper. To perform an analysis of the effects of selected macroeconomic indicators on different German stock market sectoral indices and to identify macroeconomic indicators that have a significant impact on changes in index returns. Create regression analysis models, identify significant relationships between macroeconomic indicators and DAX sectoral indices. The obtained regression results of different sectors should be compared both with each other and with the results of the research discussed in the theoretical part of the paper. Research methods used in the work. The study is conducted by applying classical linear regression model and ordinary least squares method. The impacts of 10 selected German macroeconomic indicators on 3 German sectoral indices (DAX consumption, DAX medical and DAX industrial) were investigated in the period from the second quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2023. Conclusions of the thesis. The study found that 5 out of 10 macroeconomic indicators of the country in one way or another significantly affect the returns of the studied sectors indices. The obtained data showed that the growth of the German interest rate and money supply (M1) has a positive effect on the returns of all studied DAX sectors, while German imports have the opposite effect. With an increase in the country's imports, investors should expect a decline in the value of these studied indices. It was also established that, unlike other investigated sectors, the DAX industrial sector index is significantly influenced by other macroeconomic factors of the country. Germany's growing gross domestic product and increasing public debt also increase the value of the DAX industrial index sector. The work is allowed to be published after the end of the warranty period. |
