| Abstract [eng] |
The main purpose of this thesis is to assess the impact of the tourism sector on the economy in regions of Europe: South, North, West and East after the COVID-19 pandemic. The thesis consists of four main parts: the analysis of literature, the methodological part of the study, the research results, conclusion and recommendations. The literature analysis overviews the main concept, types and structure of tourism sector and its impact on the economy. The epidemic and pandemic factors affecting the tourism sector are then identified and the economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the potential for sustainable recovery of the tourism sector after the COVID-19 outbreak is projected. Afterwards the literature analysis is followed by the methodological part which describes the study, consisting of determining the stationarity and lag order based on the ADF test and Akaike criterion respectively, assessing the adequacy of the model conditions for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, applying the ARDL cointegration method and Granger test. The results of the ARDL model identify an inverse relationship for economic growth caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, it is assessed when one of the largest impacts of the tourism sector on economic development manifestes in the Southern European region. Meanwhile, the main findings of the Granger test indicate that changes in the causal relationship between the variables considered are observed in the European regions when the period of the COVID-19 pandemic is included in the data series under analysis. The causal relationship between the variables is found to be unidirectional, as the null hypothesis accepts that GDP per capita is not a Granger cause. However, by promoting inbound tourism and generating more revenue from the tourism sector, it is hoped that this will contribute to the increasing contribution of the tourism sector to economic growth. |
