| Abstract [eng] |
The study investigates the political process that culminated in Lithuania's decision to establish a Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius, which represents a deviation from traditional interpretations of small state foreign policy and security. Despite the risks associated with this decision, Lithuania proceeded with the establishment of the representative office, provoking China's displeasure and attracting international attention. To uncover the underlying causal mechanisms behind this decision, the study employs an Explaining-Outcome Process-Tracing approach, which involves identifying the sequence of events that led to the outcome, as well as the factors that contributed to it. This approach is particularly useful in cases where there is a high level of uncertainty or complexity, and where traditional explanations do not suffice. The study draws on information gathered from media analysis and interviews with the direct participants of this process, politicians, and experts, to construct a detailed chronology of events and identify the factors that influenced the decision to establish the Taiwanese representative office. Three research hypotheses were formulated to explain the reasons for opening the Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius: (1) the Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius was opened in order to implement the strategic diversification outlined in the program of the Eighteenth Government; (2) the Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius was opened in order to attract the attention of the USA; and (3) the Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius was opened in order to develop the production of semiconductor chips. Based on the analysis of the evidence, the study finds that the first hypothesis, which suggests that the establishment of the Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius was mainly driven by the goal of implementing strategic diversification, is partially confirmed. While strategic diversification may have played a role in the decision, it was not the primary driver, and the decision had wider implications for Lithuania's foreign policy with potential risks. The second hypothesis, which proposes that the main motive behind the establishment of the Taiwanese representative office was to attract the attention of the United States and resist Chinese dominance, is confirmed by the evidence. However, the decision was not fully coordinated with other decisions of Lithuania's foreign policy and may have negative consequences. Finally, the third hypothesis, which suggests that the establishment of the Taiwanese representative office was motivated by a desire to develop the production of semiconductor chips in Lithuania, is rejected. The evidence suggests that while technological cooperation may become a reason for further cooperation in this field, it was not the primary motivation for the establishment of the office. The study contributes to the field of small state foreign policy decision-making by highlighting the complexity of such decisions and the factors that contribute to deviant cases in international relations. By employing a process tracing approach and drawing on multiple sources of information, the study provides a nuanced understanding of the causal mechanisms that led to Lithuania's decision and sheds light on the challenges facing small states in the international arena. |
