| Abstract [eng] |
75 pages, 11 pictures, 29 tables, 89 references. The main purpose of this Master thesis is to evaluate bankruptcy prediction models in the Lithuanian non-specialized stored predominant in food, beverages and tobacco in the retail sector. The master's thesis consists of scientific literature, methodological and analytical parts of the work, as well as conclusions and proposals. In the first part of the literature analysis, the trend of bankruptcy processes in the European Union, the euro zone and Lithuania is presented. The importance of the food, beverage and tobacco products retail sector and the problems of insolvency are presented. This part reveals and compares the most commonly used and evaluated bankruptcy forecasting models in scientific research. The research part of the master's thesis evaluates the classic bankruptcy forecasting models used in the scientific literature in the context of bankrupt and financially healthy non-specialized stores of the Lithuanian retail trade sector, where food, beverages and tobacco prevail. The most appropriate model based on the results is the modified Altman Z-score model with an accuracy of 57,45 percent. The modification of the most accurate classical bankruptcy forecasting model is carried out with the help of multivariate discriminant analysis and the results reveal that the accuracy of the results of the modified model increases to 65,96 percent. The conclusions and recommendations summarize the trend of the number of initiated bankruptcy processes, classical bankruptcy forecasting models are mostly used in the scientific literature, the results of them and the modified model are presented in this thesis research part. Proposals are also presented with the aim of properly assessing the bankruptcy risk of stores in the retail trade sector. |
