| Abstract [eng] |
Even though public disclosure of intelligence is not a completely novel phenomenon in the world‘s history, the scope and accuracy of intelligence which was used in public by the United States during Russia‘s preparation to invade Ukraine was extremely unorthodox. But what was the main reason for such a risky campaign? Firstly, in this thesis there was an assumption made that public disclosure of intelligence was used by US and UK as a measure of deterrence against Russia, to send a clear message, that the US and UK know about Putin‘s plans for Ukraine and Russia‘s infamous modus operandi, based on the use of hybrid warfare, and that this time he will not easily succeed as in the past. In addition, this thesis analyzed why this kind of deterrence strategy finally failed to achieve a particular task – to deter Russia from launching an invasion of Ukraine. As was proved by analyzing this case, two main reasons had the most important impact on this deterrence failure. First, it was Putin‘s determination to solve his existential problem of Ukraine by any means, no matter what, making it much harder to deter him. Second, US and UK intelligence was treated with skepticism among the most important European allies – Germany and France, which considered US and UK intelligence to be prone to political manipulation. |
