| Abstract [eng] |
The aim of this master's thesis is to analyze the theoretical aspects of the real estate market, to study and evaluate the factors influencing price changes in the 5 largest cities of Lithuania in the period of 2011-2020. The work is divided into 3 parts. The first part provides a theoretical analysis, analyzes the literature, summarizes the concept of real estate and its market, summarizes the macro-prudential policy and the application of its measures to real estate. Factors influencing changes in the real estate market are analyzed. The second part presents the methodology of practical analysis, describes the research methods. The third part reviews the results of previous researches and the general situation of the real estate market in the European perspective; a practical study of the evaluation of real estate market factors is carried out. Conclusions and suggestions are presented. The research methods are the comparative analysis of foreign and Lithuanian scientific literature, its systematization, comparison and generalization of research results. In the part of empirical research econometric analysis, regression models, reliability tests are used. The results are processed using Gretl and Microsoft Excel. The results of the empirical study showed that 3 of the 7 factors studied strongly influence the changes in real estate market prices. These factors are the construction cost price index (SSKI), the average monthly disposable household income (UP) and the unemployment rate (NL). It is concluded that there has been a particular emphasis on rising construction prices in recent years, which has led to strong increases in house prices. As household incomes rise, real estate becomes more readily available, so does demand, and so does purchasing power. If demand happens to exceed supply, prices will no doubt start to rise. An uncharacteristic trend is observed with the unemployment rate factor, when the value of real estate should decrease as the unemployment rate rises as standard. However, the results obtained provide the opposite, but given the example of the current situation, due to the consequences of covid-19, unemployment rate in Lithuania really increased during the quarantine period, but real estate prices also rose very fast and are still rising. |
