| Abstract [eng] |
Public policy decisions start with intentions. During election campaigns politicians set out their programs which become government policy tools after elections. Political pledges are an integral part of the process of democracy, elections, and public policy. The rational "mandate model" formulated by Downs explains that candidates compete in elections over political programs - politicians formulate alternative proposals and pledge to implement them when in power. Voters evaluate these proposals and assess the likelihood that a particular party will implement them and vote accordingly. Yet, opinion polls show that voters do not believe that politicians keep their pre-electoral promises. Comparative Party Pledge Group (CPPG) has investigated pledges and factors influencing their implementation, most of these studies show that parties implement their political programs to a much greater extent than constituents might think. In Lithuania, political pledges were examined exclusively as a means of political communication and rhetoric, without clear implications for the public policy process. However, the case of Lithuania is interesting and exceptional, with its mixed electoral system and parliamentary structure. It is widely criticised due to its programmed inconsistency and fragmentation as the “worst of both worlds” however, it is also believed that single-member constituencies strengthen local representation, and politicians elected should be most strongly bound by the mandate model. Analysis of the personal pledge fulfilment of politicians elected in single-seat constituencies helps to better understand the influence of personalities and the mixed electoral system on representation and public policy content. This study investigates how the pre-electoral pledges made by MPs elected in single-seat constituencies become implemented policy-decisions in Lithuania and what are the reasons for these programs to become policies. Study analyses 71 political programmes of MPs elected in single-seat constituencies in Lithuania for the term of 2016-2020. Analysing the content, a total of 345 individual commitments are indicated, following the methodological approach of the Comparative Party Pledge Group and filtering these statements according to their verifiability. A total of 161 pledges are then checked if implemented by the end of the term. A chi square test and logistic regression model analyses what are the most important factors for electoral pledges to become policies. Analysis showed that more pledges are unverifiable due to being abstract. This can result in a mandate slippage in the formulation of electoral contract between constituents and representatives. However, more pledges were implemented or partially implemented compared to those that were not implemented. This showcases that pre-electoral pledges become a reality more often than the “common wisdom” suggests. Statistical analysis uncovered those variables that have importance if the pledge would be implemented are the strength of a mandate, the jurisdiction of a promise, promise to sustain status quo vs. introduce change, compliance with the promises of other MPs, and a control variable — being MP for not full term. The study has limitations as only a single term was analysed and only limited number of pledges was included in the model, underestimating pledges by the ruling coalition MPs. Hence, all results should be extrapolated rather carefully. Still, the study as first of such kind sheds some light on the applicability of methodology of pledge fulfilment analysis in the realm of the MPs and provides new arguments into the discussion of the role of single-seat constituency Members of Lithuanian Parliament – their pre-electoral statements are not just a fish tale, but concerns can be raised on the quality of mandate fulfilment. |
