| Abstract [eng] |
The goal of this master thesis is to pre-evaluate the impact of different schemes of public support on the economic efficiency of residential PV systems and to compare the cost-effectiveness of financing options. This work focuses on the assessment of financial performance of micro residential rooftop solar PV systems, affected by various options of remuneration schemes, grant and financing mechanisms. In order to solve the main purpose, the following methods are applied: systematization of scientific literature and its comparative analysis; statistical, dynamic and structural analysis; correlation analysis; capital budgeting methods; sensitivity analysis. The work consists of 3 main parts. In the first section, the classification of existing legal support mechanisms in the sphere of PV activities is outlined, the preferred capital budgeting methods (incl. net present value, internal rate of return, and discounted payback period) are presented. Then, current infrastructural and economic conditions of solar PV market and analysis of the intensity of utilization of PV panels in the EU and in the Baltic states are performed. The second part is represented as a research design that begins with the development of a model to estimate the monthly generation of solar electricity and household electricity demand. In the third part, impacts of different support strategies and financing options on the financial performance of residential solar installation are examined, using the discounted cash flow methods adapted to analysis of PV system investment. Initial results indicate, that in Lithuania even under current conditions of the absence of remuneration for the surplus of PV electricity generated, solar PV installation is a good investment opportunity for a household from a classic NPV perspective, but in some cases the payback period is much longer than might be appropriate for residents. The more the installed capacity of a PV system, the more economic benefits a household has. The performed research revealed, that introduction of net billing scheme offers the best performance of any other scenario studied. But initiating all support mechanisms has a great impact on the economic efficiency of a project only for cases with sufficient discrepancy between energy usage and generation level of a PV system with quite big capacity. It was discovered, that the financing structure does not significantly affect the economic efficiency of the investment project: thus using a loan is an excellent possibility for prosumer to distribute costs over time. Meanwhile the introduction and use of an upfront grant has a more noticeable impact on the discounted payback period. Sensitivity analysis is held to determine the effects of the retail rate change on the economic performance of a system. It has been found that the PV system investment remains economically viable even with a strong reduction in electricity tariff rate. The conclusions and proposals section reveal the authorship input and present the key research results, which can be helpful for residents-potential PV prosumers as well for decision-makers on the legislative level in low solar radiation countries. |
