| Abstract [eng] |
SUMMARY 125 pages, 11 tables, 14 pictures, 61 references. The main goal of this master's thesis is to analyze and assess the impact of demographic indicators on the sustainability of Lithuanian finances in order to reveal future trends and risks. The work consists of three main parts: the analysis of literature, the research and results, conclusion, and recommendations. 2010-2019 statistical indicators such as population, population density, birth rate, and population age groups from 14 up to 65 years old, immigrants, the unemployed were selected for the analysis. The data of the Lithuanian municipalities consolidated financial statements set performance report is used to assess financial sustainability. The study uses the integration of descriptive statistics, correlation, regression analysis, and GMM (System Generalized Method of Moments) method. The analysis of demographic variables showed that the share of the population under 14 minimum and maximum values indicate that there are also significant differences between municipalities. The share of people over the age of 65 consists of almost a third of the total municipality population. The number of immigrants has shown that in at least one municipality, immigrants make up a significant proportion of the population, the unemployed have a significant relationship between the municipality. Population density varies greatly between municipalities. Expenditure on the economy, education, health, and social protection increased the most, but expenditure on general public services changed slightly over the period under review. An impact assessment of demographic factors on the sustainability of public finances using the GMM method has shown that demographic indicators such as population, birth rate, population under 14 and over 65, immigrants, unemployed, population density are statistically significant. However, these demographic variables have different effects on municipal per capita income and per capita expenditure. The current demographic situation and new social policy challenges may have a greater impact on the sustainability of public finances in the future. Consequently, government spending must be based on the cost of public welfare. The need for public services should be calculated by the evolution of the population according to different age groups. |
