| Abstract [eng] |
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON LITHUANIAN AND ESTONIAN REAL ESTATE PRICES Akvilė JUODAGALVYTĖ Paper of Master’s degree Master’s Program Finance and Banking Vilnius University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Department of Finance Supervisor – Lect. N.Činčikas Vilnius, 2020 Summary Master’s thesis consists of 59 pages, 14 charts, 15 pictures, 58 references. The main purpose of this master thesis is to analyze macroeconomics factor’s impact in real estate prices in Estonia and Lithuania in 2006-2018. The work consists of three parts: the analysis of scientific literature, the methodology and the concluded research. Literature analysis reviews the concept of real estate and its types, explains real estate market, market cycle and their relation to economic cycle. Also discusses about the real estate price ‘bubble’ reasons and consequences. Methodology part reveals the research model and methods. The research uses comparative analysis, regression analysis and ARIMA prediction. The third part analyzes real estate price dynamics and macroeconomic environment in Lithuania and Estonia in 2006-2018. In addition, 16 regression equations are created which reflect the influence of macroeconomic factors on real estate prices in Lithuania and Estonia. Finally, the ARIMA model was developed to forecast changes in real estate prices in the next 5 months. The performed research revealed that macroeconomic factors tend to influence the real estate prices. The main factors that have impact to real estate prices in Lithuania and Estonia is gross domestic product, unemployment rate and average wage. In addition, the graphic analyzes showed that real estate prices in the countries have been steadily rising for the last few years, but general economy is also growing. As a result of the economic growth, the real estate affordability index in these countries is very good compared to historical data. The ARIMA prediction shows that real estate prices will rise in the near future in these countries. The conclusions and recommendations summarize main concepts of literature analysis and results of the performed research. |
