| Abstract [eng] |
Lithuanian Production Relationship Modelling and Analysis of the Multipliers Master's thesis consists of 49 pages, 11 charts, 4 pictures, 54 references. The main purpose of this master thesis is to analyze Lithuanian production relationship and to evaluate calculated multipliers. Additionally, there will be determined the influence of selected shocks on the national economy. The work consists of introduction, two parts of literature analysis, methodology, concluded research, conclusion and annexes. Literature analysis reviews the concept of production relationship modelling, different types of multiplier and effects they induce. Also, we discuss about practical implications of this model made by Lithuanian and foreign authors. After the literature analysis a practical study is concluded. The results of the study show us that not all the multipliers calculated in the study were consistent. The differences between the sectors are obvious and significant. The calculation of the production multiplier shows that the most significant sector is electricity, gas, steam supply and air conditioning with multiplier of 1.7 (II type – 1.744). The income multiplier estimates shows that most significant sectors are higher education (0.77) and helth care and soc. work (0.7). The value-added multiplier has quite high values among all sectors except mining and quarrying and manufacturing. According to this multiplier, the most significant sector is higher education (0.89(0.97)) and real estate operations (0.89(0.9)). The employment multiplier is one of the most volatile multipliers several sectors with extremely high values are visible. Also, this multiplier is characterized by a gradual decrease. Most employment inducing sector is higher education, where an additional 1 million. euro increase in final demand, would create additional 76 FTE jobs. After retrospective analysis of Russian embargo, we found out that there was significant decrease in export and value added, which almost perfectly matched factual results. Also, analysis of Brexit influence was calculated and predicted. There were 3 different scenarios with different outcomes, which showed how Lithuanian export and value added would be influenced by this event. Furthermore, comparing this thesis results with Enterprise Lithuania calculations, we can see that scenario no. 2 matches exactly. Research results are meant to be used as guidelines for policy makers to calculate effects of different policies and to show possible outcomes of certain decisions. The conclusion summarizes the main concepts of literature analysis and results of the performed research. The author believes that the results of the study could give useful guidelines and insights to the policy makers, who will be able to adopt future strategic plans based on the study presented. |
