| Abstract [eng] |
The main goal of the work is to determine the impact of negative interest rates on money and capital markets by analyzing the basic principles of the European Central Bank's monetary policy. The work consists of three main parts: theoretical aspects of the impact of negative interest rates on money and capital markets, author's research, conclusions and results. The analysis of the literature examines the current negative interest rates in the market, defines the concept of money and capital markets, analyzes the main theories of negative interest rates on money and capital markets and possible research methodologies analyzed in scientific articles. After the analysis of the literature, in the research part of the work the author analyzed the influence of interest rate on the money and capital markets in the general context of Lithuania and the euro area countries. The main participants in these markets, who are significantly affected by interest rates, have been identified: banks, pension funds, insurance companies, businesses and households. In the first part of the study, a statistical analysis been done on Lithuanian banks, insurance and pension funds in which the results of the 2016-2018 period and were compared with the results of the previous 10-year period. In the second part of the study, a general analysis of the euro area banking sector was performed using statistical analysis and a comparison of its results with the theories available in scientific articles. Also using the VAR model, a forecast of the key interest rate indicators for 2020 was performed under the two analyzed scenarios. The study concluded that money and capital market participants are affected by fluctuations in interest rates, and given that period of negative interest rates is relatively short there is no significant statistical evidence on its impacts on money and capital markets, which is the reason why discussion about its influence is still only on theoretical level. |
