| Abstract [eng] |
Investors in stock markets are searching for computer software tools to analyze and rank stocks to make investment decisions. The analysis tools fall into two main groups: tools for fundamental analysis and tools for technical analysis of stock. In the current paper the author is looking for ways to combine fundamental and technical analysis to make better investment recommendations. Special emphasis is on money management rules used to open positions, calculate position size for each stock and overall portfolio value. Author also explains how to apply money management rules to not lose money in the markets. The object of this paper is S&P500 index stock ranking algorithms. The aim of the paper is to develop and test new stock ranking algorithms based on both technical and fundamental indicators. Money management rules is also a critical part selecting stocks and creating stock portfolios. In part 1 of the paper the reasons why each investor should you use both fundamental and technical analysis in his or her trading, and the importance of proper money management is explained. Author also writes about advantages using system trading instead of discretional trading. In part 2 of the paper the expert system is described. In part 3 of the paper the expert system is tested by analyzing S&P500 index stock and making trading decisions to form a stock portfolio. The expert system was tested for two weeks after is has been completed. Results of the system testing are analyzed and explained. This MBA paper consists of introduction, three parts, conclusion and annexes. The material is discussed in 65 pages, including 8 tables and 58 pictures, and 4 annexes. |
