| Abstract [eng] |
Contemporary Central Asia (CA / Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) is an internationally important region in economic and security sense. Its biggest problem is the lack of long-term political stability, which became the object of the thesis. Accordingly, the purpose of the thesis was to determine the basic reasons of instability in CA states, to disclose their detailed essence and offer an effective conception to maintain long-term stability in them. Stability was defined in dissertation as absence of revolution and objective/subjective socio-political and socio-economic base of discontent with the government of a single taken country, which is a premise and condition of the revolution in it. More favorable conditions for any revolution (classical or “colorful”), as it was stressed in the study, are supposed to form in the transitional societies with no deep historical tradition of statehood, as it is in case of CA states. Therefore, the conclusion was made that the successful state (as ethnic-civil entity and institutional system) “building” is a fundamental preventive condition of revolution (instability) and its premises there, applying principle of socio-political corporatism in organization of the system of governance in the framework of Central Asian presidential regimes. The core idea of the principle is a consensual politics of the ruling elite of the country, meeting not only individual needs, but also socio-economic needs of the society, what will keep the political system of CA states stable in the long run. External factor in case of stability in Central Asia is secondary, but presumed balance of power between Russia and China in the region is going to become its additional guarantee. |
