| Abstract [eng] |
The thesis investigates the relationship between the legislative activity of opposition MPs in Lithuania and their subsequent political careers and voter confidence. It specifically examines whether the number of draft laws registered individually by these MPs correlates with improved positioning in party rankings, better election outcomes, and securing significant political trust positions in a future term. The thesis categorizes possible MP motivations into three types: seeking positions of power (office-seeking motivation), maximizing votes (vote-seeking motivation), and implementing specific policies (policy-seeking motivation). However, the primary focus is on the first two. A historical data set from the 9th to the 13th Seimas, excluding the 11th, forms the empirical basis of the analysis. Hypotheses tested include the chances of achieving higher or top party rankings, re-election, and securing important political roles based on legislative activity. Quantitative analysis using logistic regression models is employed to validate the hypotheses. The study’s results indicate that MPs who individually registered more draft laws have statistically significant chances of securing important political trust positions and being re-elected in the same constituency. Control variables such as political experience and party success were considered, which in some cases strengthened the observed relationships. Active law-making by opposition MPs can be a strategic tool for career advancement, suggesting that individual legislative efforts may help in securing political positions and enhancing re-election prospects. The study suggests that more extensive research, including a wider range of data and qualitative interviews with MPs, is necessary to fully understand the dynamics at play. |
