| Abstract [eng] |
SUMMARY The object of this graduation paper is sales forecasting. Nowadays researches have already proved that none of business can be carried out without forecast. There can be various types of forecasting. In this paper the main attention was driven to the sales forecasting. Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term, and usually refers to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. In more recent years, forecasting has evolved into the practice of demand planning in every day business forecasting for manufacturing and trade companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and consensus process. This graduation paper consists of three main parts. In the first part of the paper the analysis of the theoretical aspects of planning and forecasting are presented. The concept of planning and forecasting is being analysed, presenting the relations’ between these two aspects, also the methods of forecasting presented and analysed. The second part of the paper presents the forecast process analysis interpretive analysing the papers of various authors. In this part the author of this paper presented the process that was being used in the third part of this paper. The third part of this paper includes the analysis about CJSC “C&D Style” sales planning and forecasting. First of all the characteristics of the company, the assortment were presented, the statistical analysis of sales data carried out. Having the results of the statistical analysis, ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods for the sales forecasting were chosen, the forecasting was carried out and the results were presented and interpretive. The paper consists of 84 pages, is illustrated in 14 tables and 21 pictures, that help more easy to see the peculiarities of the researched object. |
