| Abstract [eng] |
The variety of investment’s instruments in contemporary stock market and changeable economical environment requires to be aware of those instruments and cycles of markets to be able to control the risk. When creating optimal portfolio of stock it is mandatory to create a strategy based on analyzes of change, investing period and the possible risk. This research analyses the influence of economical cycles on stock profitability. Also strategies of creating portfolio from various financial instruments are presented. The structure of economical cycles is analyzed according to economical changes in different sessions of the cycle. When creating optimal portfolio the resistance of stock and financial instruments during economical recession are discussed. After revealing what factors influences stock profitability, various industry sectors are sifted trough. The strategy of investment is being chosen and the boundaries of investment limits are shown. This analyses orients around the main macroeconomic indexes: GDP, unemployment‘s level and interest rate. These indexes are being equalized, their relations with obligations, stock and commodities are presented. Leading index which consists of 10 leading macroeconomic indexes is being analyzed. Future economic activity can be anticipated according to this index. The main aspects are optimization of portfolio structure including alternative investments as gold and the crude oil which secure the stability of portfolio. Stocks of most profitable stock sectors are being put into portfolio on purpose to create the diversification and increase yield. That‘s why important include in portfolio and defensive industry sectors, such as healthcare, consumer goods, utilities, companies which has doesn‘t have large debt and even economical slowdown are able to raise income. So including in the portfolio defensive industry sectors stock and alternatives investments should give to this portfolio more stability and help protect from big investments worth decrease due economic and stock downturns. During the economical data analyses of 20 years period of the USA’s economy some tendencies are revealed. According to results of the research the comparative analyses of profitability of portfolios is presented. The proportions of stock, obligations and staple in the portfolio are determined. The chosen investment strategy is being rated. |
