| Abstract [eng] |
The economy of all the world and different counties is characterized by the annual changes of production volume, that in the long-term is erratic. One year the amount of production is higher, others lower. The decrease in volume of production causes many side effects such as declining corporate earnings and profits, less money for investment, declining productivity, increasing inventory of goods in warehouses, then it leads firing workers or reducing wages. People with lower levels of income, spend less money and that makes companies even more to limit their costs. In this way, we get into the vicious circle, where causes become results and they inter-repeat, but not all economic sectors equally respond to economic fluctuations. Object – different economic sectors sensitivity to business cycles. The aim – to identify the individual sensitivity of different economic sectors to business cycles. Objectives: • To explore the concept of the business cycle, in order to understand it‘s impact on the economy and companies. • To find out the causes and the consequences of the cyclical fluctuations, that appears then the economy is in the lowest stage of the business cycle. • On the basis of scientific works and information of the specialized agencies, to analyze the business cycle indicators determining their value in business cycle analysis. • To analyze a vicious circle in the company, forming because of cycles of economy, which would allow to understand the processes during the cycles. • Based on scientific studies to determine the most and least responsive to business cycles branches in various counties of the world and to search for global trends. • To carry out cyclical nature of the Lithuanian business sectors, to identify sensitive and tolerant businesses and to compare them with the global results. • To perform the NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchange listed companies cyclical analysis and to determine what are the most sensitive companies and which sectors they belong to. Work structure. In the first part „ECONOMIC CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS“ it is analyzed the concept „business cycle“, the causes and consequences of cyclical fluctuations and business cycle indicators. In the second part „THE EFFECT OF CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS FOR COMPANIES“ it is analyzed the formation of vicious circle in the country and sensitivity of industries in the world. In the third part „LITHUANIAN BUSINESS SECTORS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS“ it is performed Lithuanian business sectors and the stock exchange listed companies correlation analysis to business cycles. In most cases of the foreign counties research, as sensitive sectors are mentioned such as wood products, equipment and machinery, motor vehicles, building materials and textiles, and as resistant - food industry, pharmaceuticals, energy, financial, utilities, chemicals, clothing, iron casting. Lithuanian sector correlation analysis showed that the most sensitive sectors are food and beverage, construction, trade, and resistant sectors are – recycling, education, furniture manufacturing, chemical production, radio, television and communication equipment, apparatus manufacturing sectors. The second part of the study, that investigated the Lithuanian companies‘ in the stock exchange Nasdaq OMX Vilnius basic parameters correlation with GDP of Lithuania, approved the results of the first part. The results show that the most sensitive to business cycles are the companies, which works in the food, construction and engineering sectors. Resistant companies belong to the marine transportation, petrochemical, textile and furniture manufacturing sectors. The results of the cyclical nature of Lithuanian sectors is not always in line with the results of studies completed abroad. |
