| Abstract [eng] |
The master thesis ”Shifting Nexus of China-US Power and Role: Power Cycle Theory Application” seeks to analyze how a shifting nexus of China-US relative power and role cycles could cause a tense or peaceful transformation of the system. The research expands more traditional explanations about China’s rise of power and it’s implications to the transformation of the international system. The research is based on power cycle theory developed by Charles Doran and applied for the analysis of the Great Wars in history. The main founding principle of power cycle theory is empirically proved and statistically significant correlation of the critical points in the relative to the system power cycle of growing state and conflicts. It is only one but not sufficient condition for the growing power to start a war as power cycle theory argues. So, in the ”moment of truth” or when a critical point in the relative to the system power cycle of growing state happens, the main condition for the tension or a peaceful international system transition is the nexus of relative to the dominant state power and role cycles of the growing state and the alignment or misbalance between them. Before the power cycle theory to the case of China’s growth and its cause to the international system is applied, some methodological improvements of theory are made: the operationalisation of relative power index is changed and the term “relative role” is operationalised in order to measure it quantitative. A proposition that China’s relative to the system as well as to the US power is growing is confirmed. The research indicates that neither declines Chinas relative role cycle nor declines US relative to the system power cycle. Because of the faster growing China’s relative role than a relative power, the last proposition is rejected as well. The quantitative and qualitative analysis of China’s relative power and role confirms that despite of the steady growing China’s power, in relation with the system and US it still remains quite low. Different trends are appropriate to the China’s role cycle. It is growing faster and now reaches close to the half of US role in the international system. China is using asymmetric strategy to that of US and very successfully entrenches its position in the system. Nor China nether US is facing critical points in their relative power cycles. Because of the faster growing China’s relative role than power, the gap between US power and role cycles is widening. Still, US are not affected of growing China’s power in the system and it’s relative to the system power remains stable. At the moment Chinas relative power is to low and so not cause a danger for US domination in the system and there no cause for US to initiate tensions in the system exists. Consequently, for some decades could be found any predictions for possible tensions in the international system as well as system transformation itself. But if such trends of China’s relative power and role remain unchanged, the interest of both sides to keep the status quo in the system could move. China will be striving to align its relative power and role cycles and could overreach itself in the system or try to increase its power at the expense of it’s domains in the neighborhood (first of all – Taiwan). As well as US will be interested with China’s strain, growing openness and internal destabilization because of the deeper involvement into the system at the same time lacking means to affect international rules and regimes. The possible China’s involvement into the conflict with ex. Taiwan would lead China to the declining role and isolation, so, to the constrained power growth as well. Such circumstances would “neutralize” China threat for declining US role in the system. A high possibility remains that US will be a tensions stimulating part. Conclusions of master thesis have some theoretical insights as well. |
