| Abstract [eng] |
Home meets one of the basic needs for humans and usually makes up the biggest part of their asset and this makes home especially important in ones life. The increasing need to purchase real estate moves forward the lending market of financial institutions, which influences the whole financial system. During the 2003 year the economical rise in Lithuania was the fastest throughout Europe and this started the rise of real estate prices. Experts’ opinions and urges not to get into massive euphoria were not enough to evaluate increasing living standards and psychological factors, which gave the beginning for price rise. There were some signs of real estate price bubble formation and a possible threat to the whole economy. Real estate price bubble is only one type of economical bubbles, which periodically appears in local and global markets. Usually sudden growth of home prices is because of greatly increased real estate demand, which attracts more and more market participants willing to gain profit from the price rise. Many real estate market experts discuss if there is a price bubble in the market. Some of real estate market experts and economists state that this is a tendentious real estate price rise alongside with increasing market economy, others think that real estate price rise is too sudden and cannot be based on economical growth. In this work present the new theory explaining formation of economic bubbles based on Logistic growth models encountering the limited capital resources. This master degree work is meant to prove that real estate price bubble has formed and economical factors influenced its formation. Work objective – evaluate real estate market situation in the living sector, analyze influence of economical factors for price bubble formation. Work subject – price bubble in real estate market. Methods used in work – information gathering and data processing methods in comparative scientific literature, statistical and legal documents analysis, logistic analysis, correlation and regression analysis. This work analyses the understanding of real estate price bubble, signs of the price bubble are given, indicating that there is a price bubble in the real estate market. Concept of price bubble according to various authors is given and analyzed, as well as price bubble theories and reasons influencing price bubble formation are given. The greater attention is committed to the logistic capital management theory . Finally, the theoretical model is presented. This work also analyzes real estate living sector market tendencies in Lithuania during the years of 2000-2008. This analysis shows home price changes in Lithuania, as well as Lithuania’s market position in other Baltic states context. Two researches are made in this work. First of all the logistic analysis presents price “bubble”. Secondly, correlation between economical factors and home price changes is evaluated. According to the statements of the theoretical part about factors influencing real estate market, seven economical indicators were chosen: GDP, mean salary, interest rates, inflation, number of new apartments, building permits number of dwellings, investment to residential buildings. These economical factors evaluate internal and external real estate surroundings. At the end of the work conclusions are made. This work consists of 62 pages, 72 literature sources were used, 18 pictures and 5 tables. |
