| Abstract [eng] |
In the last few decades economic conditions has changed dramatically because of real estate market huge impact for the economy development. Obviously, that real estate market involves financial, constructional, building materials, working resources, goods, and other markets. More than once the historical guidelines of many countries had disclosed the threat of real estate market fluctuation to the harmonious development of a national economy. Encouragements of experts to resist euphoria came short of living standards’ growth and the psychological impulse that followed the tendency of residential real estate market’ growth. It was favourable for real estate developers because dwelling prices were growing and the demand was great, but since the end of year 2007, situation in real estate market’ changed. Not only in this sector but also in economy some sings of recession in trade can be observed. The object of this thesis is residential real estate market in Lithuania. The purpose is to create theoretical model, which allows forecasting residential real estate market future prospects of Kaunas region in the short time period (2 years). The main methods used in this thesis are literature analysis and (SWOT, questionnaire, nonlinear regression) residential real estate market of Kaunas region survey. The structure of this thesis is divided into three main sections: first part includes theoretical real estate market’ aspects; second part – analysis of Lithuania’ residential real estate market; third part – residential real estate market of Kaunas region survey and market future prospect. The survey has shown that in Lithuania 98 % ownership belongs to the residents and it is the highest index not only in the European Union but also in others Western Europe countries. Over the last few years 2002-2007 there was 30%-40% and in some segments even 60 % annual price growth, but in year 2007 prices stabilized, and from then it is declining. The BMA thesis reveals the characteristics of dwelling real estate structures and market in Lithuania. Residential real estate market segments are divided into three types of dwelling: apartments, individual dwelling houses and cottages. The results of the survey have led to the conclusion that using theoretical model which was created from three types of research (SWOT, questionnaire, regression) was made forecast of dwelling prices in Kaunas region. According to the short-term (2 years) dwelling price forecast decline can be expected in the near future from 10 to 50 percents. |
