| Abstract [eng] |
Bankruptcy may be at any business, especially during the economic crisis, and cause a lot of negative consequences not only for the companies but also the state and the society. Therefore, the probability of bankruptcy can be calculated using bankruptcy prediction models, most of which are based on financial reports. However, in case of inflation, financial reports and financial analysis results are distorted, so it is important to determine if the inflation doesn‘t distort the probability of bankruptcy prediction models, because these models are made integrating financial ratios, which are used in financial analysis. The object of MBA graduation paper is bankruptcy prediction models, and the purpose is to explore the impact of inflation in accuracy of the bankruptcy prediction models. The main tasks are, inspected the features, causes and consequences of the bankruptcy, to disclose the concept of bankruptcy, to determine the importance of the bankruptcy prediction models in the solvency assessment, examined the corporate bankruptcy and inflation statistics, to put the relevance and importance of this study and to investigate the inflation impact on the accuracy of the bankruptcy prediction models. The work consists of an introduction, 3 parts and conclusions. Bankruptcy – is a situation when it is proceeded against insolvent company for its financial default. The growth of the bankruptcy probability is driven by the increasing financial leverage, i.e., the growing volume of loan capital across the capital structure of corporate. The Bankruptcy of the company can be caused by macro-economical and micro-economical factors that are affected differently: can cause sudden bankruptcy of enterprises or increase decline of company and slowly anticipate to the bankruptcy. Corporate bankruptcies around the world are defined as the usual economic phenomena, which has recently increased significantly in the most countries of European union and that causes a lot of negative economic, financial and social consequences for the employees, the state, creditors, suppliers, investors, customers, only for the competitors they are useful. Bankruptcy prediction models help companies to continuously monitor the situation. There is a very wide classification of models in literature, but generally all models are divided into the classical statistical and intelligence techniques, in which different authors see both advantages and disadvantages, and therefore the one opinion of the specific bankruptcy prediction model for the appropriateness of today‘s bankruptcy has not yet been initiated. In the literature we can found the development of new models, which try to eliminate disadvantages of the old models. However, the questionnaire results showed that in practice the most popular are old classic bankruptcy prediction models, which are based on companies’ financial reports. But, in case of inflation, which is observed in every country, despite of its level of development, the probability of these bankruptcy prediction models is distorted – the maximum error calculated in Springate and Altman models, while the lowest – in Ohlson. For each company the impact of inflation is different because of differences in amounts of corporate balance sheets and income (loss) reports items and their formation date. Therefore, investing in companies of different countries, doing the competitors’ analysis of different foreign companies or simply making management decisions, it is important to consider the inflation. |
