| Abstract [eng] |
Today tourism is one of the largest and fastest growing industries in the global economy. Inbound tourism has a huge impact on national economies. The object of the paper – the development of inbound tourism. The tasks of the paper: to analyze the concept and classification of tourism; to reveal the factors influencing the development of inbound tourism; to analyze the impact of inbound tourism on national economy and its identification methods; to make analysis of the basic parameters of inbound tourism in Lithuania and to reveal inbound tourism priorities; to discuss the opportunities of inbound tourism development in Lithuania; to carry out analysis of economic factors that influence the development of inbound tourism in Lithuania and based on them to make a theoretical model for forecasting tourism development; to carry out a qualitative survey and to check in practice working of the model; to make a quantitative survey and compare the obtained results of both surveys. Theoretical model for forecasting inbound tourism development is created in this paper. Its purpose is to forecast how would change the quantity of inbound foreign tourists (dependent variable y) by changing independent variables (xn). Applying the model it is forecasted that the number of inbound foreign tourists increased by 256 thousand during the year 2010 compared to 2009. The projected value of inbound foreign tourists in 2010 is 4,257 thousand. The volume of the paper is 64 pages, it includes 12 tables, 20 figures, 6 appendixes. |
