Title Economic implications of ageing Lithuanian population /
Authors Kasnauskienė, Gindrutė ; Andriuškaitė, Marija
DOI 10.15388/omee.2017.8.1.14196
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Is Part of Organizations and markets in emerging economies.. Vilnius : Vilniaus universiteto leidykla. 2017, Vol. 8, No. 1(15), p. 44-62.. ISSN 2029-4581
Keywords [eng] population ageing ; economic growth ; labour force ; consumption ; savings
Abstract [eng] Increased life expectancy combined with declining birth rates and massive emigration !ows have caused many to worry about the various impacts of an ageing population in Lithuania. \"is suggests a very big increase in the dependency ratio and is consequently a cause for concern about a future slowing of economic growth. However, there is li$le research carried out regarding economic or %nancial e&ects of this phenomenon in the country. \"e aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of Lithuanian ageing population on economic variables. A new research design is implemented by using VAR and ARMAX models to compare two di&erent approaches, treating ageing as an endogenous and exogenous variable. \"e authors %nd that old age dependency ratio has no statistically signi%cant impact on Lithuania’s GDP growth, employment rate, %nal household consumption and gross national savings in the short run. \"e results achieved can be explained by incomplete and only short run data available for Lithuania. Also, joining the EU and other favorable economic conditions might have boosted Lithuania’s economic performance over the whole research period and signi%cantly reduced the negative e&ects of ageing population. However, the impact of shi(s in the structure of population age might soon come into e&ect, as Lithuania‘s society is gathering the pace of ageing, which is also seen in other emerging markets that are progressing toward becoming advanced.
Published Vilnius : Vilniaus universiteto leidykla
Type Journal article
Language English
Publication date 2017
CC license CC license description