| Abstract [eng] |
This research aims to identify the key factors influencing the bond market and, after creating a suitable methodology, assess their impact on market dynamics and investor behavior. The analysis reveals how interest rates, inflation, credit ratings, and geopolitical events affect bond prices, yields, and liquidity. To evaluate the influence of these factors, parameters such as Duration and Modified Duration were calculated, correlation and regression analyses were performed, yield spread differences for various credit ratings were examined, and bid-ask spread differences were assessed. The results indicate that long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes, while short-term bonds demonstrate more excellent stability. Inflation volatility predominantly impacted the yields of short-term bonds, whereas changes in credit ratings amplified yield spreads and heightened the liquidity risk of lower-rated bonds. Geopolitical events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, significantly increased bond market volatility and reduced liquidity. The study also uncovered variations in green bond yields during geopolitical crises. In conclusion, analyzing bond market factors is essential for effective risk management and investment planning. This research's findings contribute to the academic knowledge of the bond market and offer practical insights for investors and market participants. |
