| Abstract [eng] |
The master's thesis analyses the impact of selected macroeconomic factors on the volume of household loans in the 27 countries of the European Union for the period from 2001 to 2023. The aim of the thesis is to develop a research evaluation model and to carry out the evaluation itself in the 27 countries of the European Union, after the analysis of the scientific literature and the results of the empirical research on the determinants of household loans. The first part of the work discusses the meaning and importance of loans. A theoretical justification of the impact of economic factors on the volume of household loans is made on the basis of the research work carried out by foreign authors. It defines the factors that determine the volume of household loans and summarises the results of their impact on the basis of the literature analysed. It identifies the likely relationships between selected macroeconomic factors and household loan volumes. The second part of the work develops a methodology for the empirical estimation of the determinants of changes in the volume of household loans. The envisaged steps of the methodology are presented. It justifies the sample and the time period chosen for the empirical study. The choice of the determinants of changes in the volume of household loans included in the study is justified. The hypotheses, research designs, the stages of the study and the methods used in them are formulated. An assessment of the robustness of the empirical study and the possible limitations of the study. The third part of the work analyses the dynamics of household loan volumes and their determinants, the assessment of the relationship between them, and the trends in the EU countries over the period 2001–2023. After the econometric models were constructed, tests for model errors were carried out to assess the robustness of the constructed models. The results obtained from the constructed models are analysed and interpreted. The factors affecting changes in the volume of household loans over the period under study are identified in the light of the hypotheses of the study. The results of the hypotheses are compared with those obtained by other authors. The empirical results obtained from the empirical study confirmed that increases in interest rates, the unemployment rate and the change in the gap between household expenditure and income lead to an increase in the volume of household loans. However, inflation and house price indices have no effect on the volume of household loans during the period under study. |
