| Keywords [eng] |
Germany, Finland, strategic culture, security, foreign, policy, Russia, Ukraine, invasion, war, defence, Zeitenwende, NATO. |
| Abstract [eng] |
The title of the master’s thesis - The Change of Strategic Cultures After the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Cases of Germany and Finland. After the Russian invasion to Ukraine, significant changes to German and Finnish strategic cultures were made that influenced their foreign and security policies. The need to analyse the changes and how it was reflected in states’ policymaking became apparent. Research problem: European states, including Germany and Finland, formulated their foreign and security policies based on their historical experiences were World War II had major influence. It resulted in cautious German policy, especially on the military topic which includes defence expenditures. In the case of Finland, the state continued its neutrality policy based on the Cold War period agreement. On the 24th of February, 2022 when Russia attacked Ukraine states began to change their views on security policy which featured increased defence expenditures and new energy security policy for Germany, and membership in NATO for Finland. Research question: what were the main changes of strategic cultures of Germany and Finland, and whether they were profound or superficial? To answer the question these tasks were formulated: 1. To provide theoretical background for the research of this thesis using the strategic culture theory and explain how it applies to the research topic. 2. To conduct a comprehensive case study of Germany’s strategic culture prior to 2022 and compare it with the policy after the Zeitenwende speech by doing discourse analysis and documents analysis. 3. To conduct a case study on Finland’s strategic culture before the Russian invasion of 2022, and afterwards by performing discourse analysis and document analysis. The turning point is chosen to be a decision to apply for membership in NATO. 4. To determine if the changes in the strategic culture of Germany and Finland were formal or practical and had real effects on the security policies of the mentioned states. In order to analyse the change and the reasons behind it, strategic culture theory was used. Relying on the theory, historical context has been determined and its influence on strategic culture. The contribution of individual government representatives and recent events to the formation of strategic culture was further investigated. The work used 3 generations of strategic culture theory, analysing different stages. Comprehensive case studies of German and Finnish strategic cultures prior 2022 indicate that historical experiences made major impact on foreign and security policies. In the case of Germany, it was expressed in a refusal to contribute to allied missions in armed conflicts (unless the case raised a theme of fascism), low military expenditures and energy dependence. In the case of Finland, historical experience formulated neutrality policy, which did not allow membership in military alliances like NATO. After the invasion in 2022 German chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the Zeitenwende, the turn of security policy, which features increased defence financing, strengthening of the Bundeswehr, its participation in NATO initiatives, and energy independence. Finland announced its decision to join NATO this way ending neutrality and non-alignment policy period. These changes are reflected in foreign and security policy documents that were analysed in the thesis. Comprehensive case studies, discourse and document analyses, and interview results confirm the defended statement that Russian invasion to Ukraine in 2022 prompted strategic culture changes in Germany and Finland. |
