| Abstract [eng] |
Changes in real estate values and the pursuit of higher investment returns encourage us to look for reasons, what determines them and how to predict and calculate their impact and make appropriate, timely decisions. The paper reviews the sustainability trend in real estate, which is becoming an increasingly important cause of changes in real estate values. The regulation of the real estate market through the prism of sustainability is becoming increasingly relevant. Considering this environment, it is obvious that the aforementioned sustainability trend will be the cause of changes in real estate values. This paper seeks to evaluate existing market value changes by selecting valuation methods and forecast them based on assumptions. After performing the calculation of the empirical data of the selected sample, three Vilnius city streets using the comparative method, the obtained result showed that energy-efficient residential property has +14 percent. higher value according to transactions in 2024 (Žirmūnų g. +38.4 percent., Antakalnio g. +30.4 percent., Rinktinės g. +6.8 percent), without assessing the limitations of the study, i.e. other unknown criteria that influenced the value of the analyzed transactions. The DPS method performed according to the registered rental transactions on Žirmūnų g. in 2024 showed that energy-efficient residential property has +32.4 percent. higher value. The data of the analyzed transactions show only a catching-up trend in the value difference between reconstructed and unreconstructed housing, since there are few transactions after reconstruction that enter the aggregated database, such as mass assessment and its classification. A comparison of the rate of return between energy-efficient and inefficient residential property on Žirmūnų g. in Vilnius showed that inefficient property has a 1.31 percent higher return on investment than efficient property. These results were not surprising and may be the case if the tenant does not have information about the costs of maintaining the property or is unaware that reconstruction provides an average of 61 percent lower energy consumption in Vilnius, as shown by APVA data, and lower administration costs due to depreciation. According to the materials of the speakers at the annual real estate conference of the Bank of Lithuania, such a result is due to reduced affordability, which was determined by the growth of property prices and the increase in the cost of financing, and the price of old construction is the most affordable in terms of the area available for purchase. The result of the rate of return shows that it is worth investing in old construction residential housing due to the higher rental return, which consists of a lower purchase price and a higher rent. The obtained return rate result is influenced by increased inflation due to the war in Ukraine in early 2022. with the onset of the energy crisis and in 2023. increased interbank interest rates, which led to increased real estate prices and more expensive borrowing, respectively, reduced real estate availability, because wage growth catches up with inflation over time. In such a situation, market participants began to look for housing that they could purchase with their own or borrowed funds, and this could disproportionately increase the value of renovated apartment buildings, respectively reducing the investment return on such assets. The methods of the study have limitations and if the value of the property increases positively by 14 percent, and the rate of return is obtained less than 1.31 percent. There are more important goals for making an investment decision than environmental protection, so regardless of the laws of the economy and the behavior of its participants, it is important to give greater importance to the sustainability criterion. |
