| Abstract [eng] |
55 pages, 13 charts, 13 pictures, 45 references The main purpose of the master thesis is to identify the impact of the structural changes of GDP on the Lithuania's economic growth. The purpose is achieved by completing these tasks: analysing the theoretical literature and the empirical background of the question at hand, preparing the methodology for the master thesis, and executing the research. Therefore, the master thesis consists of three parts: the analysis of the literature, the methodology, as well as the results and conclusions of the research. The results of the analysis of the theoretical literature show that structural changes were not always considered in the theory of the economic growth. After the implementation of the structural changes into the economic growth theory, it was identified that the structural changes themselves may be of the various kind, and the changes of GDP by economic sector are one of them. In addition, the factors of the structural changes also differ; the analysis identified the main factors as the changes in productivity (divided into three effects) and the flows of the direct foreign investment. As a result, these factors were considered in the author's research; the author had also presented four hypotheses based on the findings in the analysis of empirical background. The methodological part of the thesis consists of the description of data and methods for the research. The presented methods are: the analysis of time series, scatter plots and data structure, evaluation of the level of structural changes (modified Theil index), the shift-share analysis of the effects of the productivity changes, and the regression analysis. The author also defines the conditions for the hypotheses testing. The performed research revealed that the structural changes in Lithuania were insignificant. Regardless of that, the results of the research identified the tendencies of the change based on the changes in the GDP created, workforce employed, and flows of direct foreign investment. The author also found the statistically significant impact of the two effects of productivity change on the economic growth, in addition to the flows of direct foreign investment, the phase of economic cycle, and the expectations about the future economic growth. The conclusions and recommendations section summarizes the results of theoretical and empirical analysis. The author suggests using the presented model and methods in identifying the main supportive economic sectors of the economic growth, and base political decisions on the results of the identification. |
