| Abstract [eng] |
The main purpose of this master thesis is to investigate Lithuania‘s economic growth and tendencies. The work consists of three main parts: the analysis of economic growth theories, the research of Lithuania‘s economic growth identification and tendencies, the research of causal relations between Lithuania‘s economic indicators and forecast models. At the end there are given conclusions and recommendations. Literature analysis reviews that in the twenty-first century economists have paid great attention to the derived theories and models in the second part of twentieth century. They argue theories such as neoclassical economic growth, Neo-Keynesian and these economic models: Solow - Swan, Cass - Koopmans, Harod - E. Domar, real business cycle, endogenous growth and political growth. Today, growth theory is described as the synthesis of all the listed theories and models. Analysed theories could give a few main conclusions. Firstly, the initial conditions are important in explaining growth rate differences between different countries. Secondly, a good economic policy particularly affects the rate of growth. Thirdly, legal, political and institutional frameworks have a great impact as well. The carried out study showed that Lithuanian economy in 1991-2014 period experienced a number of shocks (hyperinflation, the economic downturn, commercial banks collapse, the Russian financial crisis, the global financial crisis) but has maintained long-term economic growth. Until Lithuania's EU membership of the country's economy has been developing smoothly and is mainly related to the country's economic transformation from a centrally planned to a market economy and dependence on the Russian market. Hyperinflation, financial sector reform and the Russian crisis has had the greatest negative impact on Lithuania's economic growth but none of these factors did not change the long-term development direction. Lithuania joined the EU, the country's economic growth has stabilized, and the decisions taken by the government resulted in a targeted country's economic development in the Western economies direction. The biggest negative impact on economic growth was in 2009 crisis but after the country's economy became even stronger and nowadays it is well placed to resist Russia's economic recession threats. The performed statistical analysis of Lithuania‘s economic indicators resulted that:  GDP growth throughout the period in comparison with Western European countries characterized by strong growth and got closer to the Western European level.  The highest unemployment rate was recorded in the twentieth century in the first half of the tenth decade and after the economic crisis in 2009. A significant and positive impact on the unemployment rate decline was development of small businesses and high emigration rate.  Foreign trade statistics shows that Lithuania successfully restructured its foreign trade reorienting it from Russia to Western Europe and other regions of the world. Performed statistical and econometric Lithuania‘s GDP determinants studies have shown that the country's GDP trends is best reflected in the vector autoregression model included GDP, average wages and the percentage change in the consumer price per annual dynamics with one period of delay. Also, other vector autoregression model is composed, which includes the quarterly GDP, FDI and MI data. This model consists of four periods of delay. Prepared growth prediction models, covering the above GDP trends pertaining to economic indicators, enables to provide the expected changes in the rate of Lithuania's GDP in the nearest future. Finally, the estimated predictions of models which were compared with actual GDP showed that prepared economic growth prediction models could be trusted as the country's economic growth anticipation tools. On the basis of these models can be evaluated and analyzed the nearest future projections. |
