| Abstract [eng] |
On 2022 February 27th German Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivered the so-called Zeitenwende speech which outlined a radical change in German foreign and defence policy. This research study therefore attempts to shed light on the dynamics of the German Zeitenwede and how the relevant factors influence the implementation of this important change. The problem question of this paper is as follows: if the Zeitenwende, an important change in German foreign and defence policy, is encountering practical difficulties in its implementation, what are the reasons and factors hindering this change? In other words, this paper would seek to find out the root causes affecting the not yet fully successful Germany’s Zeitenwende. Accordingly, the aim of the paper is to investigate the internal Germany’s causes that could lead to a halt in the Zeitenwende process. The main tasks of the research are introducing the theoretical approach, creating the methodology for conduction of the study, conducting research and presenting main results and insights of the research. The theoretical approach used in the research is a neoclassical realism which was coined by an American political expert Gideon Rose. From this theory, three intervening variables are used in the paper: the beliefs or images of individual politicians which are analysed by looking into the speeches, opinions and behaviour of selected German political leaders; state-society relations which are measured by surveys of the German population on important political issues regarding Zeitenwende, domestic structure and functioning of the Germany’s political system which is reflected by investigating the decision-making process. Respectively two hypotheses are formulated for the conduct of research – the first one takes the support from intervening variable about the beliefs or images of individual politicians, and the second one is formulated by merging two variables – state-society relations and domestic structure. Hypothesis no. 1 states that the Zeitenwende process stalls due to German political leaders' beliefs about German security and hypothesis no. 2 states that the Zeitenwende process is being held back by the particularities of the relationship between the German state and society and by internal aspects of the country's political structures. This Master’s thesis is being conducted a case study based on qualitative data from 2022 February 27th until snap federal elections of German Bundestag which were held in 2025 February. Main conclusions of the research are these: hypothesis no. 1 is strongly supported by data and it proves that the Zeitenwende was held back by the beliefs of Germany's top politicians at the time which were influenced by the fears of a potential new major war in Europe, including the participation of Germany and a possible collapse of the German economy. However, the hypothesis no. 2 of this research is rejected as there has been found evidence to suggest that the German population is overwhelmingly opposed to the announced changes regarding Zeitenwende or that the German political structure is likely to have a negative impact on the implementation of the important processes. At the same time it has to be said that neoclassical realism theory lacks some features, like including the incompetence of the politicians that could affect the behaviour of the state in a negative way. Nevertheless, the research provides valuable insights about the reasons that have delayed and hindered the effective implementation of the Zeitenwende and German politics in general, including the effect of internal factors for the behaviour of the state in international politics field. Concluded results could be used as a basis for future research as it is important to continue highlighting the importance of the analysis of politicians' beliefs and psychological factors which ultimately affect important political decision-making such as the materialisation of the Zeitenwende. |
