| Abstract [eng] |
The research paper The Development of Israel’s Relations with Jordan and Lebanon Since 1967: An Analysis of Lebanon’s Pursuit of Peace with Israel Based on Jordan’s Experience focuses on Lebanon’s potential to conclude a peace agreement with Israel, analysing the Jordanian experience as a precedent. Since the establishment of the state of Israel, neighbouring countries have declared war on the Jewish state. However, following the 1967 Six-Day War, the Hashemite Royal Family of Jordan, began holding secret meetings with Israel, which eventually resulted in the 1994 peace agreement. Positioned as one of the most stable states in the Middle East, Jordan’s example raises the question of whether a similar approach is possible for Lebanon, which is currently witnessing the decline of Hezbollah’s influence and the rise of newly elected President Joseph Aoun. The purpose of this paper is to identify the main reasons why Israel and Lebanon have not yet reached peace and based on the example of Jordan, to explore the factors—and their synergy—that could encourage Lebanon to move toward peace. The analysis will draw on theoretical insights from constructivism, including Edward Azar’s theory of “protracted social conflict” and John Paul Lederach’s “peace-building pyramid”, as well as realist approaches to conflict and social dynamics as outlined by Hans Morgenthau and John Mearsheimer. First, the thesis analyses the theoretical foundations through the lenses of constructivist and realist approaches. It then examines the 1994 Jordan–Israel peace agreement as a case study. Next, the paper explores the key factors that have prevented Lebanon from signing a peace agreement with Israel to date. The research section applies the chosen methodology, analyses the relevant factors, and presents theoretical assumptions that clarify how these factors might evolve to enable Lebanon to pursue peace with Israel. The conclusion summarizes the findings and discusses potential limitations of the study. The analysis leads to several important takeaways. Jordan’s successful pursuit of a peace agreement with Israel was driven by the interplay of key factors: the leadership of the Hashemites, the active role of the national army, pressure from the U.S., and short-term public support rooted in economic and religious incentives. In contrast, Lebanon did not experience a similar synergistic relationship between such factors due to the absence of strong leadership, Syria’s interference in its foreign policy, and deep-seated hostility among Christian Maronites, Muslim Shias, and Sunnis. The study concludes that the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon has created conditions for shifting the status quo of factors hindering peace. President Aoun’s leadership, the increasing role of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and growing support from France—potentially reducing the influence of Iran and Syria—symbolise the emerging interaction of key factors conducive to peace. Azar’s theory of protracted social conflict, together with the example of Jordan’s limited success in addressing societal needs, illustrates that lasting peace requires broad societal support. Lebanon’s unique demographic composition further necessitates that its political elite cultivate genuine synergy among peace-enhancing factors. It is important to note that, despite the focus of this analysis, a comprehensive understanding of Tel Aviv’s conditions and motivations for pursuing a peace agreement with Beirut remains essential, as peace cannot be achieved unilaterally. In conclusion, this study contributes to the development of both constructivist and realist theories by demonstrating how they can be applied to analyse the fulfilment of societal needs and shifts in the regional balance of power. Furthermore, the identification of key factors—and their interactions—in the case of Lebanon offers a potential framework for examining the emergence of peace in other complex conflicts across the Middle East. |
