| Abstract [eng] |
This master’s thesis analyses global and regional trends in GHG emissions in transport sector. Using information from the SLOCAT TraKb database, 182 countries over the period 1990-2019 were selected, and cluster analysis was performed (using the k-means method). All countries were divided into clusters based on transport emissions, transport emissions per capita, and transport emissions by GDP. In all three cases, countries were divided into two main clusters and, for a more detailed analysis, into seven or eight clusters. The analysis of standardized transport emissions for 1990-2019 identified two main clusters with different development paths. Sweden, the representative country of the first cluster, has seen its emissions in the transport sector fall over the period under consideration, while the countries of the second cluster, represented by China, have seen a steady increase in emissions. The countries in the first cluster were economically strong and developed, and technological innovation following the financial crisis of 2009 helped them to reduce their GHG emissions systematically during the period. In the second cluster, countries, for the purpose of improving their economies, have increased emissions and have not maintained or intend to limit emissions in the transport sector. The per capita emissions from the transport sector show a similar trend to the analysis of transport emissions. The countries analysed are divided into two main clusters represented by Sweden and China. Both countries have experienced population growth, but Sweden's technological adaptation and the electrification of methods of transportation have managed to overshadow the concomitant increase in emissions. In China's growing economy, emissions have risen more strongly than population growth. When standardised transport emissions are analysed by GDP, GDP growth in developed countries has been stronger than their transport sector emissions growth. It should be noted that many developed countries were already experiencing declining emissions during the period of examination, therefore transport emissions per unit of GDP fell significantly. On the other hand, in developing countries, transport emissions have grown more than their GDP growth, with the strongest growth in emissions since 2005. Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve, a more pronounced decline in transport emissions as a share of GDP will likely be observed in the near future as developing countries achieve adequate economic performance. Countries have taken policy measures to limit GHG emissions, electrify transport, and change the composition of fuels to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, strengthen energy independence, reduce air pollution, and respond to climate change. These policies, which started in the second half of the 20th century, have begun to work, and since the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries or their alliances have decided to impose stricter limits. Political will has laid a solid foundation for electrification, fuel diversification, and technological solutions to improve fuel efficiency in internal combustion engines. At the same time, this has already been reflected in countries' transport emissions, but more time is still needed for a fundamental breakthrough. |
