| Abstract [eng] |
66 pages, 17 figures, 11 tables, 97 sources This master’s thesis examines how population ageing affects healthcare expenditures in Lithuania and the European Union. The topic is highly relevant, as the share of older people is increasing across all countries, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of healthcare systems and public finances. The thesis is divided into three main parts. The first part reviews the literature, presenting key demographic ageing indicators, the structure of healthcare expenditure, and the main factors driving its growth. It also discusses findings from previous research, which show that healthcare spending dynamics are influenced not only by demographic trends but also by economic cycles, technological progress, income levels, and health policy decisions. The empirical analysis uses annual data for 2000–2022. For Lithuania, a VAR model is constructed to assess the relationship between ageing indicators and government healthcare expenditure. For the EU countries, a panel VAR approach is applied. All analyses were carried out using the R software environment. The results indicate that the impact of ageing on healthcare expenditure is relatively weak. In Lithuania, healthcare spending is mainly driven by economic factors and its own inertia, while demographic changes unfold more gradually. The EU-level analysis confirms that a growing elderly population is associated with higher healthcare expenditure, although the effect is more long-term than short-term. The conclusions summarise the main findings and present recommendations. The thesis highlights the importance of strengthening preventive care, improving primary healthcare services, and expanding long-term care. The need to ensure financial sustainability in an ageing society is also emphasised. |
