| Abstract [eng] |
The main objective of this master's thesis is to assess the impact of war refugees from Ukraine on the Lithuanian economy, treating refugees as an independent economic factor. The thesis aims to identify the main economic channels through which this impact has manifested itself and to assess its scale in the short term. The thesis consists of three main parts: a literature review, empirical research and its results, and conclusions and recommendations. The literature review covers previous theoretical and empirical studies of the economic impact of war refugees from Ukraine, focusing on the labor market, domestic demand, price dynamics, public finances, and economic growth channels. The empirical part of the study uses quarterly macroeconomic data for Lithuania. Linear regression (OLS), coefficient decomposition, and vector autoregression (VAR) models are applied to assess both direct and indirect channels of the impact of war refugees and their dynamics over time. The results of the empirical study show that the impact of war refugees from Ukraine on the Lithuanian economy in the short term was real, but ambiguous and mostly temporary. The strongest impact was found in the labor market—refugee flows were significantly associated with employment growth. A slight positive impact was observed on domestic consumption, while the direct impact on inflation was not statistically significant. The analysis of public finances did not reveal any long-term fiscal pressure, and only a weak and short-term positive impact was identified in the economic growth channel, mainly transmitted through domestic demand. |
