| Abstract [eng] |
This Master’s thesis examines the impact of political parties’ organizational resources on electoral outcomes in the Lithuanian parliamentary elections of 2020 and 2024, with particular emphasis on party membership as a potential mechanism of voter mobilization. The study seeks to assess whether party membership continues to function as an independent organizational resource at the municipal level, or whether its effect has diminished in the context of increasing campaign professionalization and personalization. The theoretical framework of the thesis draws on literature on party organization, electoral mobilization, and party system change, particularly debates concerning the transformation of mass parties and the growing importance of financial and personal resources in electoral competition. The analysis is situated within broader discussions on party institutionalization and the weakening of membership-based mobilization in contemporary democracies. The empirical analysis is based on original datasets combining municipal-level electoral results from the Central Electoral Commission of Lithuania, data on party membership distribution, and information on party financing. The study employs ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models, including multiple linear regression, to evaluate the relationship between party membership, financial resources, candidate personalization, and electoral performance across municipalities. The analysis demonstrates that in the 2020 parliamentary elections party membership was more strongly associated with electoral success at the municipal level, particularly for parties with dense territorial organizations. However, by 2024 this relationship became weaker and more differentiated across parties. When controlling for party financing and candidates’ performance in single-member districts, the independent effect of party membership decreased for most political parties, indicating that a substantial share of its earlier impact was mediated by other organizational and campaign-related factors. The results further indicate a growing importance of personalized mobilization, especially in single-member districts, where individual candidates’ political capital and local visibility increasingly shape electoral outcomes. This trend is particularly evident among newly formed or reorganized political actors, while established parties rely more heavily on institutional reputation and financial resources than on direct membership-based mobilization. A dedicated case study of the split of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union and the formation of the Democratic Union “For Lithuania” illustrates how organizational fragmentation affects territorial resources and electoral performance. The findings show that organizational continuity and membership density are not automatically transferred following party splits and that newly formed parties tend to rely more heavily on personalized and leadership-driven mobilization strategies. Overall, the thesis concludes that party membership in Lithuania remains politically relevant only under specific organizational and territorial conditions. While it continues to play a significant role for certain localized and socially homogeneous parties, in most cases it functions as part of a broader set of organizational resources rather than as a standalone driver of electoral success. The study contributes to the empirical literature on party organization and electoral behavior by providing systematic evidence of changing mobilization mechanisms in a mixed electoral system. |
