| Abstract [eng] |
The main purpose of this master thesis is, after analyzing the essence of the DuPont methodology in the context of profitability analysis, to evaluate and forecast the ROE indicator of Swedbank and SEB banks based on the DuPont methodology and macroeconomic indicators. The work consists of three main parts: literature review, research methodology, empirical research and its results, and conclusions. The literature review discusses the theoretical aspects of financial analysis, the importance of profitability and its indicators, examines the DuPont analysis methodology and its application in the banking sector, as well as the impact of macroeconomic indicators on bank performance and profitability. Previous studies by Lithuanian and foreign authors related to the evaluation and forecasting of bank profitability are also reviewed. During the research, an analysis of the financial indicators of Swedbank and SEB banks was carried out using the DuPont methodology. The main ROE components analyzed were net profit margin, asset turnover, and equity multiplier. To determine the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the components of the ROE indicator, regression analysis was performed. The study used such macroeconomic indicators as inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rate, and the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate. The research revealed that the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the ROE components differs between Swedbank and SEB banks. In the case of SEB bank, the unemployment rate had a significant negative impact on the net profit margin, while no significant impact of any macroeconomic indicator was identified in the case of Swedbank bank. The regression models of asset turnover showed that all analyzed macroeconomic indicators had a significant impact in the case of Swedbank, whereas the unemployment rate had no significant impact in the case of SEB bank. The regression analysis of the equity multiplier revealed that inflation had a significant impact on both banks. Two methods were applied to forecast the 2025 ROE indicators and their components of Swedbank and SEB banks: trend forecasting and regression analysis. The obtained results showed that, in the case of Swedbank, the regression analysis method forecasted individual ROE components more accurately, while the ROE indicator forecast obtained by both methods was similar and evaluated as highly accurate. Meanwhile, in the case of SEB bank, the forecasting results were mixed – regression analysis provided more accurate forecasts for some indicators, whereas the trend method was more accurate for others. The ROE forecasts obtained by both methods were evaluated as accurate. However, the trend method overestimated the indicator, while the regression analysis method underestimated it. The conclusions and recommendations summarize the results of the research conducted and provide insights into the impact of macroeconomic indicators on bank profitability as well as the possibilities of applying forecasting methods. The results of the thesis may be useful for banking sector analysts, investors, and financial specialists performing bank profitability evaluation and forecasting. |
