| Abstract [eng] |
This paper analyses the change in Lithuania’s energy dependence on Russia in 2010–2025 in the context of changing geopolitical relations. The research examines three energy sectors – gas, oil and electricity. They are analysed separately, as the trade structure, infrastructure, alternatives and operating principles of each sector differ. The paper identifies several key turning points of the period. The analysis begins in 2010, when, after the closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant, the situation of the Lithuanian electricity sector deteriorated and the need for imports increased. In 2014, the annexation of Crimea strengthened the perception of Russia as a threatening actor in Lithuanian security policy and the energy sector. In the same year, a liquefied natural gas terminal began operating in Lithuania, which became an alternative in the import context. With the launch of the NordBalt and LitPol Link connections in 2015, Lithuania gained alternatives to electricity imports. The fundamental turning point is considered to be 2022, when after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lithuania completely stopped importing Russian energy resources. In 2025, the final end of systemic dependence on Russia occurred in the electricity sector, as Lithuania disconnected from the Russian electricity system and synchronized with the continental European networks. The level of dependence of each sector is calculated according to a certain formula, which includes: 1) the entire share of Lithuania's imports was made up of Russians; 2) How much in total Lithuania consumed that energy resource in a specific year. Having received the numbers for each sector, it is seen that some years were similar in terms of the level of dependence, and some sectors differed significantly in percentage terms. All 3 energy sectors need to be assessed, because their trade, infrastructure and alternatives differ. This work shows that Lithuania's level of energy dependence on Russia has been consistently decreasing over the period 2010-2025, but this process has been at different rates in different sectors. The hypothesis put forward in the introduction has been confirmed, that as geopolitical relations with Russia have changed, Lithuania has consistently sought to reduce its level of energy dependence on Russia. |
