| Abstract [eng] |
In the first part of the article the status of corporate evaluation practices in crisis through traditional diagnostic model and the three Altman model features interpretations on the following key business indicators are described to measure the financial position of groups: profitability, short-and long-term solvency, operating efficiency and capital markets. In the second part of the article the practical part of the five main economic sectors of business (wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, real estate, rentals, transportation, storage and communications and construction) for the financial indicators of the weight structure of the GDP forecast is presented for describing models: quadratic trend function of the exponential trend function, S -curve trend function, and five ARIMA functions. In realistic calculations Statgraphics Plus v3.0 program features are used: One Variable Analysis, Multiple Sample Comparison and User-Specified Model Forecast. In determining the significance of the models developed and the accuracy, analysis was carried out on: information criteria for evaluation, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation standard errors of assessment Box Pierce test, errors in matching white noise values, test statistics and P values for evaluation. The resulting prediction of the selected ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model and the corporate financial position forecast for 2012. and other findings are presented. |
