| Abstract [eng] |
The master’s thesis shall research if the real estate market indicators forecasted any possible economic cycle phase changes in Lithuania from the year 2006 to 2019. The master’s theses is compiled from three parts. The first piece presents as followed: the overall concept of real estate and its market, the perception of economic growth and approach to its evaluation, the analysis of real estate market fluctuation as well as the pattern of economic cycles sequence indicators aspects. The theoretical aspects evaluation of the connection between the real estate markets and the economy’s growth pace is implemented. The result analysis of varied authors who executed empirical research regarding the topic is also included. The second part of the thesis evaluates if the Lithuanian real estate markets estimations can be assumed as prefixed indicators of the economies cycle sequence, from the mentioned aspects a logical structural methodology can be compiled to the research. In order to evaluate the real estate markets estimates signals about the changes of the economies cycle phase the general macroeconomic estimations and the real estate estimations are presented. A dynamic overview is issued of the initial real estate market estimate and gross national product as the main economic cycles estimate. The third part evaluates the possibility to consider the real estate market estimates as preliminary economic cycle indicators about the changes of the economies cycle phase. The relation between the chosen real estate market estimates and the economy’s growth speed is researched by implementing the econometric method of multiple regression using model with the least squares. The results show that statistically meaningful real estate markets diminishing indicators appearing at the same time frame are assumed as the constructions cost index, the number of finished buildings, the number of approved residences, the index of new buildings being sold and the index of old buildings being sold. Thus it can be confirmed the hypothesis that states that the shifting real estate estimates present the economic cycles phase fluctuations that may occur. |
