| Abstract [eng] |
This thesis is about climate change impact to transportation system and mostly focused on road maintenance and traffic safety in winter. The impact of climate change is evaluated by creating specific road weather climate projections for 21st century of indices that represent meteorological road condition affecting phenomena. According to these projections, road and traffic conditions in winter will get better on average – there will be less blizzards, air temperature will be higher. However, winter road maintenance will remain challenging – there will be a higher probability for ice formation on roads and ensuring good road condition will be a demanding task. Winter road maintenance decision support systems (MDSS) are popular worldwide and are considered as a best tool for short- and long-term winter road maintenance task planning. This work proposes a type of MDSS for Lithuania that shall decrease the vulnerability to climate change of Lithuanian transportation system. Lithuanian MDSS could include methods that were already successfully applied in Lithuania – thermal mapping and numerical road weather forecasting. Both MDSS components are evaluated and verified in this work. In combination, these methods and MDSS technology in Lithuania would greatly benefit road maintenance professionals. Lithuanian MDSS shall help ensure good road conditions during winters and reduce the number of traffic accidents. |
