| Abstract [eng] |
The Master's Thesis examines the impact of the tax burden on economic growth in the European Union countries in the period between 1995–2019. The aim of the thesis is based on the analysis of research to develop a model for assessing the impact of the tax burden on economic growth and to perform an assessment in 28 countries of the European Union. In the first part of the work, based on the scientific works of Lithuanian and foreign authors, the theoretical substantiation of the impact of the tax burden on economic growth is performed. The concept of economic growth and tax burden is discussed. Theories of economic growth are summarized. The factors that determine economic growth are defined, and the results of their impact are summarized based on the analyzed literature sources. An analysis of the assessment of the impact of the tax burden on economic growth is performed on the basis of the conducted research. The likely links between the tax burden, economic growth and other macroeconomic factors included in the analysis are identified. An analysis of tax regulation in the 28 EU countries is performed. The second part presents the research process and methodology. The research sample is defined and the period analyzed. Models for assessing the impact of the tax burden on economic growth are developed. The first model analyzes a general group of the 28 EU countries. The second model examines the impact of the tax burden on economic growth in the group of developing economies in the European Union. A third model including delayed variables has also been developed to measure the lagging impact of the tax burden on economic growth. The analysis of the factors included in the model and the substantiation of the factors reflecting them are performed. Research hypotheses are formed. The summary of this section is models that allow the impact of the tax burden on economic growth in the 28 EU countries to be assessed. The third part aims to assess the impact of the tax burden on economic growth in the 28 EU countries. After performing the dynamic analysis of tax burden and economic growth in 1995–2019, it has revealed that the level of the tax burden in EU countries is growing faster than economic growth rates. After performing the assessment of the relationship of annual changes in the tax burden and economic growth between 10 and 24 years, it was found that economic growth slowed down as the tax burden increased. After creating the econometric research models, tests for estimating their errors were performed to evaluate the reliability of the developed models. After finding that the developed models were reliable, a multivariate regression analysis was performed in the groups of the 28 EU countries and in the EU developing economies. The results of the study confirmed the slowing effect of the growing tax burden on economic growth. The study confirms the differences of the impact in the formed groups – with the increase of the tax burden, the rates of economic slowdown are higher in the group of the EU countries with the developing economies than in the general group of the 28 EU countries. The results confirm the significant lagging effect of the tax burden on economic growth. |
