| Abstract [eng] |
The thesis investigates if the stock market signaled about the economic changes for the period of 2000–2014 in the developing countries (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) and in the economically developed countries (USA, Germany and Japan). In the first part of this work the theoretical overview on economic cycle and its indicator aspects are introduced. What is more, the circumstances why the stock markets can be described as economic indicators are also presented. Moreover, the scientific researches about the orientation links between the stock markets and the economic cycle are analyzed in this final work. The thesis analyses the researches that have been used to indicate if the stock market signaled about the economic cycle changes in the developing and developed countries. The practical part of the work seeks to find out if the stock market in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia USA, Germany and Japan can be called leading economic indicators and the differences of stock market signals among those countries are indicated. In order to analyze the relations, four macroeconomic indicators were chosen (GDP, net earnings, volume of retail trade and volume of industrial production). With the help of graphic analysis, ADL model this relation was analyzed. The results show that stock market is a leading economic indicator in the analyzed countries, however, stock market signalized about the economic cycle changes later in the developed countries than in the Baltic States. What is more, the prognosis of economic cycle is conducted which allows to state that over the next few quarters USA can expect relatively strong economic growth while in Germany, Japan and Lithuania this growth shall be more moderate and Estonia and Latvia may expect economic recession. |
