| Abstract [eng] |
The Master's work consists of 3 parts. Conceptual part is performed Lithuanian and foreign literature, which help is excreted essence of bankruptcy and bankrupt phase. Theoretical aspect based on scientific studies, are excluded bankrupt firms Lithuania causes, consequences and possible bankrupt diagnosis techniques.Bankruptcy probability is determined based on an integrated corporate bankruptcy diagnostic techniques, which are based on te only bankruptcy prediction models, but is evaluated and the companyoutside and inside environment of absolute and relative financial performance. Analytical - methodical part are evaluated bankrupt trends in Lithuania in 2000-2013. period. The number of bankruptcies in the country is growing on companies the inability timely diagnosis of bankrupt, which leads to an even greater degree of indebtedness to creditors. While business leaders as initiators of bankrupt is increasing, but other creditors between originators, occupies a leading position. Structural analysis of corporate bankruptcy Lithuania, allowed to exclude sectors where the highest number of bankruptcies in Lithuania started in 2013. It was selected for further analysis of APB “Apranga”, which is engaged in the retail sale of clothing. APB “Apranga” bankruptcy probability assessment was carried out using an integrated enterprise bankruptcy forecasting methodology, which led to discern the basic inside and outside factors determined the most of the company's financial condition. Done absolute and relative indicators, it showed that the company make profit, but faced with various types of risks, which may significantly affect its stability and financial condition. The evaluation of APB Apranga probability of bankrupt was based on the traditional 9 bankrupt probability of diagnostic models and the modern 5. Many bankrupt models the company introduced a low probability of bankrupt, except Altman, Spring, Chesser, Fulmer, Zavgren, J.Begley, J.Ming and S.Watts and Shumway., Who at one or all of the periods identified a significant probability of bankrupt. Shumway and Zavgren models are not appropriate APB Apranga bankrupt probability of diagnosis because Shumway bankrupt model for the period under analysis found a significant probability of bankrupt and Zavgren model 2011. Full-model analysis period found significant probability of bankrupt and Zavgren model 2011. This is not the objective, because of the previously completed financial-economic analysis has been established improving the company's financial position.The hypothesis was rejected because it was found that not all bankruptcy probability models are suitable for the diagnosis of APB “Apranga"chances for bankruptcy. |
