| Abstract [eng] |
The main goal of this master thesis is to reveal the analysis of the probability of corporate bankruptcy and the factors that determine it. To achieve this goal, an analysis of the scientific literature and regulatory legislation on the probability of corporate bankruptcy and its determining factors was carried out, a methodology for determining the probability of bankruptcy in companies was compiled, based on which the financial indicators of selected bankrupt and operating companies in the Lithuanian accounting sector were analyzed. The analysis of scientific and theoretical literature, legal acts and other sources of information, comparative and financial indicators analysis, graphical representation of data, calculation of bankruptcy probability models and comparison of results, structural and dynamic analysis were used for the research. In the first part, discusses bankruptcy, the reasons for its occurrence, the sequence of the process, and probability determination models. After analyzing the information presented in the literature and the authors' research, it was observed that bankruptcy is a natural situation in the economy, when a natural or legal person cannot fulfill the obligations on time or the obligations are greater than the value of the assets. Regardless of whether the process is initiated due to the inability of the company to meet its financial obligations to creditors, employees, or because of willful non-transparent activities that have been exposed, all of them mean the liquidation of the company. It is important to determine what can lead to bankruptcy, to analyze internal and external causes and to be able to predict the probability, as this can help to prevent liquidation or restructuring in time. By properly choosing a probability forecasting model or by applying several, comparing the data, it is possible to determine the position of the company more reliably. In the second part, the methodology for determining the probability of bankruptcy of companies is formulated, which helps to find out the trends of bankruptcy of companies operating in the selected sector of economic activity of accounting, contributes to the assessment of the situation, the determination of possible reasons that led to the liquidation of previously bankrupt companies and the identification of threats to bankruptcy of existing, still operating companies. It is difficult to apply certain norms to the majority so that they are accurate, so during the research, the sample was chosen - five bankrupt and the same number of operating companies, which are similar in size and carry out the same economic activity. In the third part of the work, the financial indicators of bankrupt and operating companies are calculated and compared, during the research, an attempt was made to ascertain whether the existing models for determining the probability of bankruptcy approved in the authors' previous works can actually be applied in the chosen sector of economic activity in Lithuania. All of them were found to be suitable, because finally in 2014 bankruptcy was determined for at least three bankrupt companies out of the five investigated. The conclusions and proposals summarize the main concepts related to the topic of the work, observations and the results of the conducted research, which could help companies in the monitoring of their activities, because the company's liquidation and exit from the market does not and cannot ensure legal stability for other market participants, does not contribute to the improvement of their financial situation. |
